According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 is rising and now sits about 2% below its record high following the latest news, highlighting a risk-on tone in equities. According to @KobeissiLetter, markets are focusing on a coming change in the Fed Chair and potential fiscal stimulus that could drive a volatile 2026. According to @KobeissiLetter, asset owners remain in control, a backdrop crypto traders can monitor for potential spillover into BTC and ETH as risk appetite shifts.

According to Edward Dowd, fiscal stimulus is a counter-cyclical tool and deploying it into a supposedly strong economy risks higher inflation, implying policymakers see economic weakness ahead. Source: https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1998668375619469781 For trading, monitor the NY Fed yield-curve recession probability and the ICE US Dollar Index DXY to gauge risk sentiment that can spill over into crypto beta, where BTC and ETH have shown stronger correlation with broader risk assets. Sources: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycmodel https://www.theice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks To track policy repricing, use the CME FedWatch Tool for market-implied rate paths that react to growth and inflation headlines linked to fiscal policy. Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a new proposal suggests funding a $5,000 refund through DOGE savings, contrasting with previous fiscal stimulus funded by deficit spending. The proposal specifies that only tax-paying households with a higher propensity to save would receive this refund, potentially impacting DOGE market liquidity and tax-related trading strategies. [source: The Kobeissi Letter]